91%
DROP IN DRY BULK TRANSITS
The Strait of Hormuz Crisis: What feed manufacturers need to know - and do - right now
The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz since late February 2026 has sent shockwaves through global commodity markets. For feed manufacturers, this is not an abstract geopolitical event. It is already moving the prices of soybean meal, grains, vegetable oils and energy, and it is tightening the logistics of supply chains you depend on every day. Here is what is happening, why it matters to your business, and how to stay ahead of it.
A chokepoint with an outsized grip on feed ingredients
At its narrowest point, the Strait of Hormuz is just 21 nautical miles wide. Yet this slim corridor connects the Persian Gulf to the open ocean and handles a disproportionate share of global agricultural trade. Following military strikes on Iran on February 28, Iran declared it would target vessels passing through the strait, triggering an immediate response from the world's major shipping lines. Maersk, MSC, Hapag-Lloyd and CMA CGM have all suspended Gulf operations, leaving hundreds of bulk carriers effectively stranded.
25–30M t
GRAINS & OILSEEDS IMPORTED VIA STRAIT ANNUALLY
~280
BULK CARRIERS TRAPPED IN THE GULF
The Middle East absorbs 18 to 20 percent of global demand for grains and oilseeds. Saudi Arabia sources roughly 40 percent of its grains and oilseeds through eastern Gulf ports; the UAE moves approximately 90 percent through Jebel Ali in Dubai, a hub that also serves Bahrain, Qatar and some 45 to 50 million people across the region. When that flow stops, the ripple hits global commodity balances fast.
"The bottom line is that Asia and Europe face disruption if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed." --- Tosin Jack, Director of Market Reporting & Commodity Intelligence, Expana
Impact at a glance
Immediate Risks
Ingredient price spikes: soybean meal, grain, vegetable oils already moving
Freight cost surge: rerouting via Cape of Good Hope adds weeks and cost
Delivery delays: stranded vessels, new bookings refused
Energy cost pressure: LNG disruption raises production costs
Medium-Term Risks
Fertiliser shortage: up to 45% of global urea supply at risk
Reduced crop yields: lower nitrogen application in next growing season
Ingredient scarcity: tighter global supply of grains and oilseeds
Sustained inflation: compounding input costs across the feed chain
Feed ingredient prices: what is moving and why
Soybean oil was among the first commodities to react, with futures on the Chicago Board of Trade already pricing in supply risk. But the pressure extends well beyond a single commodity. Soybean meal - the dominant protein source in compound feed for poultry, swine and aquaculture - is directly exposed through both price and availability. So are corn, wheat, vegetable oils and palm oil, all of which flow through or around disrupted routes.
The mechanism is straightforward: shipping capacity shrinks as vessels reroute via the Cape of Good Hope, adding two to three weeks to voyage times. Fewer rotations mean tighter vessel supply, which means higher freight rates on top of rising commodity prices. For feed mills, the squeeze arrives from two directions at once.
The practical consequence for procurement: ingredients that were available at a known price last week may not be next week, or may arrive significantly later than planned. Just-in-time procurement strategies that worked in stable markets become a liability when logistics are this unpredictable.
The fertiliser shock: a second-order risk to watch closely
The impact on feed ingredient supply does not stop at what is currently in the supply chain. There is a slower-burning risk that deserves equal attention: fertilisers.
Around a third of globally traded urea passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Qatar accounts for roughly 10 percent of global urea exports, Saudi Arabia for approximately 8 percent, with Iran, Iraq, Kuwait and the UAE adding further volumes. Nitrogen fertiliser underpins roughly half of global food production. A sustained disruption to urea supply constrains next season's crop yields, which directly affects the future availability and price of the grains and oilseeds that feed manufacturers depend on.
Rabobank estimates that up to 45 percent of global urea supply is now at risk. The precedent is sobering: when Russia — responsible for just 12 percent of global urea trade — escalated its war in Ukraine in early 2022, urea prices surged 67 percent within a single month. The current exposure is structurally larger.
Logistics: the compounding pressure on your supply chain
Brazil, the world's largest soybean exporter and a major supplier of chicken to the Middle East, illustrates the operational reality. More than 25 percent of Brazilian chicken exports are destined for the region. New booking slots for the Gulf are simply not being offered; exporters are evaluating reroutes via the Cape of Good Hope. The result: longer transit times, higher costs, and reduced certainty over delivery windows, across the entire supply chain.
For feed manufacturers, this translates directly into buffer stock pressure. When delivery windows lengthen unpredictably, holding less inventory becomes riskier. When prices are volatile, holding more inventory is expensive. You are forced to make procurement and formulation decisions faster, with less certainty, and with more at stake if you get it wrong.
The feed mills that navigate this best will be those that can reformulate quickly when an ingredient becomes unavailable or unaffordable, compare alternative ingredients on true nutritional value rather than price alone, and run scenario analyses before committing to purchases, not after.
How BESTMIX Supports your team when markets move against you
When ingredient prices spike overnight and your regular suppliers can no longer deliver on time, formulation decisions that normally take days need to happen in hours. Bestmix gives nutritionists and procurement teams the tools to act fast, without sacrificing performance or blowing the cost target.
→ Least-cost reformulation on demand. When a key ingredient becomes unavailable or its price jumps, Bestmix instantly recalculates the optimal formulation across your full ingredient library, respecting all nutritional specifications and constraints.
→ Compare ingredient quality across origins. Not all soybean meal, corn or DDGS is equal. Bestmix lets you enter origin-specific nutrient values and model the performance and cost impact of switching sources before you commit to a purchase.
→ Run procurement scenarios before you buy. Evaluate multiple sourcing strategies simultaneously; what if you substitute 20% of your soybean meal with rapeseed meal? What does that do to amino acid balance and cost per tonne? Bestmix answers that in minutes.
→ Protect nutritional guarantees under substitution. Define the constraints that matter; minimum digestible lysine, maximum fibre, target energy, … and let Bestmix find the cheapest formulation that stays within them, automatically.
→ Always formulate on today's prices. Connect Bestmix to live market price feeds so every formulation decision reflects current market reality, not last week's contract prices.
The bottom line
The Strait of Hormuz crisis is not a short-term headline. It is an active disruption with a direct line to your raw material costs, your supply security, and your ability to maintain product quality under pressure. Ingredient price increases are already a certainty. How deep and how long the impact runs depends on how the geopolitical situation develops, but the operational challenge for feed manufacturers is here now.
The businesses that come through this with margins intact will be those that moved from reactive to proactive: building scenario plans, stress-testing their formulations against alternative ingredients, and making procurement decisions on the basis of current prices and verified nutritional data, not assumptions from last month.
That is precisely what BESTMIX is built for.
Don’t let ingredient volatility dictate your margins
Contact us to discover how BESTMIX gives your team the speed and flexibility to stay ahead of supply chain disruption
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